Who Is Likely to Win Bungoma Gubernatorial Seat in the Upcoming General Election (Opinion)

Bungoma gubernatorial race is taking shape as the clock is ticking towards the next general election. The seat has attracted several political heavyweights who want to succeed governor Kenneth Lusaka whose final term is ending next year. 

Among the aspirants are Kimilili MP Didmus Baraza, Westlands MP Timothy Wanyonyi, former governor Wickliffe Wangamati and Zacharia Barasa.

With around 14 months to the election, the contest seems to be narrowing down to two-horse race between Kimilili MP Didmus Baraza and Westlands MP Tim Wanyonyi. Baraza is vying on UDA while Tim is contesting under ODM ticket. 

Though it's difficult to predict who will emerge the winner, Didmus seems to have an upper hand due to the following reasons;

First, Didmus is a self made politician with good grassroot connection with voters. He has never relied on endorsement to be elected. 

In 2017, he won Kimilili MP seat under Jubilee Party ticket, beating the then incumbent Suleiman Murunga of FORD-Kenya. 

At that time Bungoma was largely on the NASA side which Moses Wetangula was a principal but he outsmarted them.

On the other hand, Timothy Wanyonyi has never been elected in Bungoma and his experience with Bungoma politics does not match that of Didmus. 

He has only served as MP in Nairobi and enjoyed the support of ODM party. In this aspect we can say Didmus is ahead.

Secondly, UDA is more popular than ODM in Bungoma. The ruling party has more elected leaders in the county than ODM. The party factor therefore favours Didmus against Timothy.

Although the race is still tight and anyone can win, Didmus has high chances than Timothy. An opinion poll that was done by Mizani Africa in November last year placed Didmus ahead with 27.3% while Timothy Wanyonyi had 24.5%. This justifies how the race is so tight.