According to political analysts, the decision expected on June 8, carries significant implications for President William Ruto's bid for re-election, as well as for opposition figures including Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and Jubilee presidential hopeful Fred Matiang’i.
Gachagua is expected to learn his fate when the High Court delivers its judgment on consolidated petitions challenging the legality of his October 2024 removal from office through a parliamentary process.
Political analysts say the ruling could trigger major political realignments extending beyond Gachagua’s personal case and directly affecting the 2027 presidential contest.
Political analyst Dismas Mokua says Gachagua has already transformed his political setback into a major source of influence, considerable political clout and is likely to be a significant figure in the upcoming election.
“He has successfully turned adversity into opportunity and is now a key player in 2027 politics,” Mokua said.
He says some opposition leaders now view Gachagua as an important ally who could improve their chances against President Ruto.
However, he warns that if Gachagua is allowed to run for president, it could actually benefit Ruto by splitting opposition votes.
“If the opposition is divided and fields many candidates, it will hand Ruto an easy victory,” he said.
“Kalonzo’s support base will demand new leadership if he abandons his 2027 ambitions,” he said.
Meanwhile, political analyst Herman Manyora says both the government and the opposition face major challenges as 2027 approaches.
Regarding President Ruto, Manyora says he must acknowledge the economic and political difficulties affecting citizens.
“He must accept that things are not going well for everyone,” he said.
He also cautioned the opposition against relying solely on slogans such as “Wantam” to win the election without concrete strategies.
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