How Launching a New Party to Counter ODM Could Hurt Babu’s Nairobi Gubernatorial Bid (Opinion)

 

Embakasi East MP Babu Owino has announced plans to launch a new political party, a move that could have significant implications for his 2027 Nairobi gubernatorial ambitions.

According to the lawmaker, the new party will challenge the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) in its traditional stronghold of Luo Nyanza and seek to replace what he describes as incompetent local leaders.

While the move could position Babu as a champion of grassroots change, it could also complicate his bid to become Nairobi governor.

Babu's path to City Hall could depend heavily on mobilizing the Luo vote in Nairobi while attracting support from other communities. ODM remains influential among Luo voters in both Nyanza and Nairobi constituencies such as Kibra, Lang'ata and Mathare.

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By openly challenging ODM, Babu risks alienating some voters who remain loyal to the party. The leaders he targets could also use their political networks to campaign against him in Nairobi, potentially dividing the Luo vote between him and a candidate that ODM will support.

In my opinion, Babu Owino may be fighting the right political battle at the wrong time. A more calculated approach would be to register his new party but initially concentrate on building its support base in Nairobi.

Establishing a strong grassroots network under his own banner would give him greater political bargaining power without immediately opening a major battle with ODM in Nyanza.

If he wins the Nairobi gubernatorial seat in 2027, he would gain significant political influence as the head of the country's capital. He could then use that influence to expand his political network beyond Nairobi, including in Nyanza.

For now, taking on ODM in its traditional stronghold could give Babu greater visibility, but it may also distract him from his immediate goal of winning the Nairobi gubernatorial race.

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