Political commentator Abuga Makori has argued that Kalonzo could face a major challenge in attempting to translate his influence among the Kamba community into a nationwide presidential coalition capable of defeating President William Ruto.
Makori's remarks have sparked debate over the political calculations that could shape the 2027 presidential contest, particularly as different leaders position themselves to inherit support from communities that previously backed the Azimio la Umoja coalition.
According to Makori, Kalonzo cannot automatically assume that every Kamba voter will support his presidential bid.
The Kamba community, while an important voting bloc, is politically diverse, and winning the backing of a large section of the community would not by itself guarantee victory at the national level.
He further argued that Kalonzo faces another challenge outside Ukambani because several regions that previously supported Azimio were not exclusively under his political control.
This could force the Wiper Party leader to build a much broader coalition if he intends to make a serious presidential challenge in 2027.
The political landscape has also changed considerably since the 2022 election. President Ruto's Kenya Kwanza administration has continued to seek support in regions where the opposition previously enjoyed significant influence.
At the same time, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has emerged as another major political player, particularly in discussions surrounding the future of the Mount Kenya vote.
Makori suggested that both Ruto and Gachagua have established political networks beyond their traditional strongholds and could potentially compete for support in areas that once strongly backed the late opposition leader Raila Odinga.
The death of Raila in 2025 has also significantly altered Kenya's political landscape, leaving opposition leaders with the difficult task of reorganising the coalition that previously brought together supporters from different parts of the country.
For Kalonzo, the challenge is therefore not only about maintaining his influence in Ukambani but also convincing voters in Western Kenya, the Coast, Nairobi, Rift Valley and other regions that he can lead a winning national alliance.
Ruto, meanwhile, is expected to rely heavily on his established support in the Rift Valley while attempting to expand his influence in other regions.
Makori believes that this combination could give the incumbent an important advantage going into 2027.
However, the election is still months away, and political alliances in Kenya can change dramatically before voters head to the ballot.
Kalonzo has previously participated in broad opposition coalitions, demonstrating his ability to negotiate alliances with other political leaders. Whether he can once again assemble a nationwide political machine will be one of the major questions ahead of the election.
For Kalonzo, the challenge is therefore not only about maintaining his influence in Ukambani but also convincing voters in Western Kenya, the Coast, Nairobi, Rift Valley and other regions that he can lead a winning national alliance.
Ruto, meanwhile, is expected to rely heavily on his established support in the Rift Valley while attempting to expand his influence in other regions.
Makori believes that this combination could give the incumbent an important advantage going into 2027.
However, the election is still months away, and political alliances in Kenya can change dramatically before voters head to the ballot.
Kalonzo has previously participated in broad opposition coalitions, demonstrating his ability to negotiate alliances with other political leaders. Whether he can once again assemble a nationwide political machine will be one of the major questions ahead of the election.
Ultimately, the 2027 presidential contest is unlikely to be decided by one community alone. Candidates will need to secure broad regional support, strong grassroots mobilisation and a coalition capable of attracting voters beyond their traditional bases.
For now, Makori's prediction that Ruto could “sweep everything” remains a political opinion rather than a guaranteed election outcome. The coming months will reveal whether Kalonzo can expand his support base or whether Ruto will succeed in maintaining the advantage his supporters believe he currently holds.
For now, Makori's prediction that Ruto could “sweep everything” remains a political opinion rather than a guaranteed election outcome. The coming months will reveal whether Kalonzo can expand his support base or whether Ruto will succeed in maintaining the advantage his supporters believe he currently holds.
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